The Very Basic of Fundamental Analysis
³ Fundamentals: Quantitative and Qualitative
³ Quantitative Meets Qualitative
³ The Concept of Intrinsic Value
³ Criticisms of Fundamental Analysis
³ Conference Calls & Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)
³ Ownership and Insider Sales & Past Performance
³ Financial and Information Transparency & Stakeholder Rights & Structure of the Board of Directors
³ Industry Growth & Competition
³
The Concept of Intrinsic Value
Before we get any further, we have to address the subject of intrinsic value. One of the primary assumptions of fundamental analysis is that the price on the stock market does not fully reflect a stock’s “real” value. After all, why would you be doing price analysis if the stock market were always correct? In financial jargon, this true value is known as the intrinsic value.
For example, let’s say that a company’s stock was trading at $20. After doing extensive homework on the company, you determine that it really is worth $25. In other words, you determine the intrinsic value of the firm to be $25. This is clearly relevant because an investor wants to buy stocks that are trading at prices significantly below their estimated intrinsic value.
This leads us to one of the second major assumptions of fundamental analysis: in the long run, the stock market will reflect the fundamentals.
This is what fundamental analysis is all about. By focusing on a particular business, an investor can estimate the intrinsic value of a firm and thus find opportunities where he or she can buy at a discount. If all goes well, the investment will pay off over time as the market catches up to the fundamentals.
The big unknowns are:
1) You don’t know if your estimate of intrinsic value is correct; and
2) You don’t know how long it will take for the intrinsic value to be reflected in the marketplace.
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